Speculation on Google results

There’s a great post here from Amr Awadallah speculating that Google’s Q4 numbers might not be so great because of changes it made to its search engine advertising monetisation in Q3:

These changes led Google to a very strong Q3 where they showed a sequential growth of 14% over Q2 of 2005, a very strong increase for a typically slow summer quarter. That, however, sets the standard very high for Q4 of 2005, hence my prediction that they will miss the wallstreet estimates for Q4 sequential growth. I monitored their UI closely in Q4 and did not see any significant monetization changes to boost Q4 ala what happened with Q3.

In fact, Google admitted that fact in an Nov 2005 SEC filing which stated: “seasonal trends in the third quarters of 2005 and 2004 may have been disguised by certain monetization improvements to our advertising programs.”

Looks like Amr’s been doing a fair amount of Google deconstruction on his blog. Have a read around.